K-12 enrollment is on the decline due to dropping birth rates and more school choice options, putting schools in a tight bind. The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) projects enrollment will go from 51 million in 2019 to 47 million by 2031. Factors contributing to this decline include declining birth rates, migrations out of certain states, and students leaving the public school system for other school choice options.
The interest in homeschooling and private school options has exploded since COVID-19, with 90% of states tracking homeschooling enrollment finding it increased in the 2022-23 school year. Private school choice programs have also played a role in this picture, with about 40% of the K-12 population now having access to some kind of ESA or voucher.
Enrollment declines rarely mean anything good for school districts, which rely on good enrollment numbers for funding. One consequence for the decline has been school closures, with Reason Foundation finding data from 15 states showing 98 school closures in the 2023-24 school year. Other ways schools have tried to save money include cutting classes and positions, as per Lin Johnson, chief strategy, growth and finance officer of TNTP, a group focused on improving the public education system.
However, experts say that downsizing does not always have to be a bad thing, as state requirements can sometimes dictate how to spend money. Schools may need to fire the most junior teachers instead of finding the teacher they don’t need or the teacher who’s not providing best service.
